A long-term strategy for British farming is unquestionably welcome. Farming is an industry that plans decades ahead, with decisions on land, livestock, buildings and machinery often taking years to deliver a return. A 25-year roadmap therefore has the potential to provide the certainty that farmers have repeatedly called for. However, shadow DEFRA sec Victoria Atkins is right to argue that a strategy is only as credible as the government's ability to earn the trust of those expected to follow it.
The central weakness in the roadmap is not its ambition but its credibility. Farmers make investment decisions based on confidence that policies will remain stable over many years. Recent changes have instead created uncertainty: the sudden closure of the Sustainable Farming Incentive to new applicants left many businesses questioning whether government schemes can be relied upon. Likewise, proposed changes to inheritance tax relief for agricultural businesses have fuelled concern that family farms could face greater financial pressure when ownership passes between generations.
Whether or not every farm will ultimately be affected, the perception of increased uncertainty has had a negative effect on confidence.
This matters because agriculture is unlike most industries. Farms cannot simply relocate, delay investment indefinitely or change business models overnight. Long-term confidence is essential if businesses are to invest in new technology, environmental improvements, modern buildings and higher productivity. Without that confidence, even well-designed policies risk failing to achieve their objectives.
Atkins is also right to emphasise that food production must remain at the heart of agricultural policy. Environmental improvements, biodiversity and climate resilience are all important goals, but they should complement, rather than replace, the primary purpose of farming: producing affordable, high-quality food while maintaining the economic viability of rural communities. Food security has become increasingly important in an uncertain world, making a profitable domestic farming sector a matter of national resilience as well as economic policy.
Ultimately, a roadmap cannot succeed through vision alone. It requires consistent delivery, stable funding and a relationship of trust between government and farmers.
Until ministers demonstrate that policies will remain predictable and that commitments will be honoured over the long term, scepticism is understandable. In that respect, Victoria Atkins' criticism is less a rejection of the roadmap's aspirations than a reminder that confidence, once lost, is far harder to rebuild than to promise.
