The recent cocoa production shocks in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana stem from a mix of climate stress, disease, structural farm issues and wider market dynamics. With record extremes in 2024 and prices peaking before Christmas 2025, is the worst over for West African growers?
A central driver has been adverse weather linked to climate variability and change. In West Africa’s cocoa belt, farmers have faced erratic rainfall, heatwaves and droughts that reduce yields and encourage disease. An unusually strong El Niño weather pattern in 2023–24 contributed to both excess wet conditions and dry spells unfavourable for cocoa, which prefers stable rainfall and moderate temperatures. These conditions also worsen outbreaks of fungal diseases like black pod rot and the long-standing cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV), which kills trees and can cut output dramatically. These climate and disease pressures were cited as key causes of declines in output and the resulting spike in cocoa prices.
Structural challenges have amplified these shocks. Many cocoa farms in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are aged and under-invested, with trees past their most productive years and limited access to climate-resilient planting material or modern agronomy. Farmers often have little buffer against shocks because of low investment in inputs, infrastructure or diversification. In Ghana, for example, CSSV and the age of trees have been significant contributors to reduced yields.
These production issues happening in two countries that together account for over 60% of global bean supply triggered enormous price volatility. Cocoa prices reached historic highs amid fears of shortages before correcting as some weather conditions improved and traders adjusted. Reports from commodity analysts have noted a partial price retreat from peak highs by late 2025, reflecting both improved forecasts and market correction from earlier scarcity pricing.
However, underlying structural problems remain. Cocoa production remains fragile and sensitive to climate and disease, and future variability is expected to persist. Analysis by Wageningen University researchers suggests that in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, suitable area for cocoa could decline under climate change projections even by mid-century, though regional differences mean some countries might expand production potential. Continuous investment in resilience, tree replacement, disease management and climate adaptation will be key to stabilising future production, and that may come at a cost to consumers.
