The House of Commons Library has published a new briefing relating to the conflict in the Middle East and its effects on the UK economy.
According to the briefing, food prices are likely to face upward pressure if disruption to energy markets continues. The report notes that higher oil and gas prices increase costs throughout the food supply chain, from farming and fertiliser production to processing, refrigeration and transport. As a result, organisations such as the NFU have warned that consumers could see food prices rise as producers face higher input costs.
The briefing emphasises that energy costs are particularly important because agriculture is heavily dependent on fuel, fertiliser and transport. If energy prices remain elevated, many businesses may pass on at least some of these additional costs to consumers. This is one reason why inflation forecasts have been revised upwards, with the Bank of England expecting inflation to remain higher than previously anticipated during 2026.
Recent food inflation data shows how sensitive food prices can be to global events. Food price inflation peaked at 19.1% in 2023, the highest rate for more than 40 years, driven by supply chain disruption, higher energy costs, fertiliser prices and international instability. While inflation subsequently eased, food prices remain substantially higher than before the pandemic, with UK food prices rising by around 38.6% between late 2020 and late 2025.
The paper concludes that while the scale of any future increase remains uncertain, prolonged disruption to energy production or shipping routes could feed through into higher food prices. The impact would not necessarily be immediate, as retailers and suppliers often absorb costs for a period, but sustained increases in energy and fertiliser prices would be expected to place upward pressure on the cost of food for households.
You can read the paper here.
